Chapter Nine: Absolute Rationality, the Courage to Accept Losses, and the Path to Gain

On the way home, Liu Suxin sat in the front passenger seat, her eyes filled with tenderness as she gazed dreamily at Yan Fei, who was driving with utmost focus. Today, his ordinarily plain face seemed exceptionally charming.

A subtle, intimate atmosphere enveloped the car. The two silently savored this wonderful feeling, neither speaking until the car came to a stop at the entrance of Yan Fei’s residential complex.

They stepped out and stood silently at the gate for a moment. Yan Fei nervously clenched his hands, longing to kiss Liu Suxin’s lips but afraid of being too forward. Instead, he shyly reached out to tuck a stray lock of her hair behind her ear and softly said, “Let’s go inside; it’s getting late.”

Feeling his nervousness, Liu Suxin’s heart fluttered anxiously. She wondered to herself, “What if he kisses me? Should I refuse? Would that hurt him? But I’m so scared!”

Suddenly, Yan Fei’s voice broke through her reverie. She looked up at his resolute face, feeling both touched and a little disappointed. Silently, she nodded and gently replied, “Okay, good night.”

Watching her departing figure, Yan Fei scolded himself for his timidity. Muttering, “Yan Fei, Yan Fei! After sixteen years of playing the field, how can you hesitate when facing a maiden? Pathetic!”

He chuckled self-deprecatingly, humming a tune as he happily walked home. Lying in bed, a smile lingered on his lips as he drifted into sleep, dreaming of love with Liu Suxin and the fruit of their affection.

Upon waking, Yan Fei’s face fell with disappointment. He realized that blissful happiness was just a dream. After a long daze, he got up to wash and prepare for the day.

After breakfast, Yan Fei glanced at the calendar marking Sunday. He picked up his finance book again but couldn’t focus; Liu Suxin’s image kept surfacing in his mind.

Shaking his head, he muttered, “I must be sick. Yan Fei, stop thinking about this. Your priority now is making money and studying. Sweet romance isn’t for a player like you.”

With a bitter smile, he resumed reading. Meanwhile, at Liu Suxin’s home, the young girl sat at her dressing table, lost in thought about the previous night’s moments, unsure if she was truly in love.

Whenever she thought of Yan Fei, her heart raced, and a shy blush rose from within. She wanted to visit him but feared being looked down upon. Her emotions swung between smiles and wistful longing.

Her unusual behavior soon caught her mother’s attention. With a knowing glance, Liu Mu quickly descended the stairs and approached a suave middle-aged man, whispering, “Zhe Ge, it seems our daughter is in love.”

Upon hearing this, Liu Zhe sat upright, a strong sense of crisis welling up. The typical doting father’s demeanor overtook him as he listened seriously to his wife’s account and realized their daughter was likely in love.

Pulling out his phone, Liu Zhe dialed a number and said gravely, “Check Suxin’s recent schedule. See if anyone suspicious has been near her.”

After the call, Liu Mu asked, “Zhe Ge, could it be Zhang Zhigao? I heard he’s been pursuing Suxin desperately.”

Liu Zhe shook his head disdainfully. “Zhang Zhong wanted to marry into our family for our business resources. I refused long ago, but the Zhang family wouldn’t give up and sent their son Zhigao after Suxin. Not to mention, Suxin would never look twice at someone like him.”

While Liu Suxin’s parents discussed her romance, Yan Fei was immersed in studying finance, time passing swiftly until nightfall.

After dinner, Yan Fei turned on his computer and bypassed the firewall to check American news. He soon found a report from ExxonMobil, a U.S. oil producer. Reading carefully, his face lit up with shocked delight.

“Excellent!” Yan Fei clenched his fist and exclaimed, “ExxonMobil has announced production cuts. Coupled with increased industrial demand from the U.S. economic recovery, oil prices are bound to soar. Monday’s battle will be thrilling.”

Opening the crude oil futures market screen, Yan Fei studied the long positions, sensing these were likely built by American oil producers. Yet, the volume seemed modest compared to the producers’ scale.

After pondering, Yan Fei suspected the producers had been hesitant earlier, probably due to negotiations with U.S. authorities. Now, by releasing this news, they were pressuring the government. If the authorities resisted, the bulls would surely surge on Monday.

At this moment, in a presidential suite of a five-star hotel in the U.S., Pierce sat across from Khalid, the head of Saudi Aramco, calmly saying, “Khalid, you must have seen the government’s arrogance. They want to carve us up. Surely, you won’t stand idly by?”

Khalid smiled in response. “Mr. Pierce, I see your determination. We will stand with you. Otherwise, how can we protect the interests of us oil merchants?”

The two reached a friendly consensus to unite in this oil negotiation, forcing the U.S. authorities to concede and agree to favorable prices for their crude.

Time flew until 6 a.m. Beijing time. Yan Fei was awakened by his alarm, sprang out of bed, splashed cold water on his face, and sat before his computer, watching the crude oil futures screen.

As the market opened punctually at six, a massive long order of 3,000 lots suddenly surged, swallowing all short positions above and driving the price to 28.95.

This large long order acted like a flare, prompting a downpour of long orders that battered the shorts into retreat. Within less than a minute, over 7,000 lots of long positions flooded the market, sweeping away all shorts and pushing the price to 29.56.

The shorts, reluctant to concede, rallied fiercely, placing a 3,000-lot short order that hammered the price down to 29.45.

Before the long side’s main players could respond, numerous retail bulls surged in, instantly devouring that 3,000-lot short, pushing the price back up to 29.60.

Seeing retail and major players flock to the long side, shorts intensified their efforts and slammed down a 4,000-lot short order.

Watching the screen, American oil producers smirked coldly. “The government wants to force us to yield and harvest us via the futures market. Clever plan, but they don’t understand finance. Let’s push it up.”

At their command, a dozen traders unleashed a flurry of long orders, quickly amassing over 10,000 long lots that swallowed all shorts and surged prices higher.

Under the bulls’ ferocious onslaught, shorts lost all resistance, helplessly watching prices break new highs. Attempts to close positions were futile—no short positions remained to cover—resulting in mounting losses.

Crude oil futures prices soared to 31.65. Yan Fei noticed the bullish momentum waning; in ten seconds, fewer than fifty long lots traded. He realized the bulls were stalling; many retail and major investors began to watch cautiously.

Without hesitation, Yan Fei closed his long positions, securing profits of $316,130. His breaths quickened, a flush rising to his face.

Sixteen years of disciplined trading restored his calm instantly. His eyes gleamed like a hunter fixated on prey, carefully watching the market, contemplating whether to short.

Two minutes later, seeing the bulls’ momentum completely vanish, Yan Fei decisively reversed, using 20x leverage to place a short order of 291 lots worth nearly $460,000.

The short order slammed down, blasting the weakened bulls and pushing the price to 30.85, signaling the start of a short counterattack. Many major and retail investors flipped to short positions.

The U.S. authorities, spotting the sudden surge in shorts, shouted excitedly, “Switching offense and defense, boys, move! Dump all remaining funds! Push the price down!”

A dozen traders sprang into action, unleashing massive short orders totaling 5,000 lots, driving the price from $30.85 to $30.25.

With this large order leading, countless retail and major investors followed suit, unleashing a waterfall of shorts that relentlessly hammered prices lower.

Yan Fei watched as the price slid, finally stopping at 29.70. The short momentum weakened, and sporadic longs began to appear, ending the rampant short advances.

Seeing this, Yan Fei promptly closed his 291-lot short, watching his account surpass the million-dollar mark. The air felt sweet with success.

Meanwhile, in the American oil producers’ trading room, Pierce observed the market and sneered, “The market’s turning. Boys, charge! Crush the shorts completely.”

The dozen traders quickly took long positions, amassing over 3,000 lots and pushing the price to $30.00.

Yan Fei noticed this large long order and immediately realized the producers were acting again, signaling more explosive news to come and new price highs ahead.

Without hesitation, Yan Fei deployed his entire $1.02 million, leveraged 20 times, placing 685 long lots, instantly supporting the American producers and pushing the price to 30.21.

With these two massive orders, more retail and major investors flipped long. A torrent of long orders surged, rapidly driving prices upward. Producers continued pushing with large orders, and crude futures quickly broke new highs to $32.20 per barrel.

As the record price appeared, the market’s fever began to cool. Some retail and major investors started to close positions; some even flipped short. Yan Fei remained unmoved, focused intently on the screen, his mind racing.

Seconds later, seeing the main long players still inactive, Yan Fei’s conviction deepened—there must be bigger news forthcoming, and all he needed was patience.

The price finally stalled at 32.42 with no further upward momentum. Increasing short orders emerged, driving prices down to 32.35.

Yan Fei watched as the market showed no major moves. For a full minute, short trades numbered only in the hundreds, trickling out like a light rain, slowly pushing prices lower.

Growing anxious, Yan Fei pondered whether he was overthinking and considered closing positions to avoid a sudden short crush that might cause him to blow his account.

Just as he deliberated, the falling price suddenly halted. A massive 5,000-lot long order burst out, sweeping away all shorts and pushing the price sharply to 32.68, a new high.

Many confused retail and major investors panicked. Some quickly closed shorts to go long; others held shorts stubbornly. Then, another 5,000-lot long order surged, pushing the price to 32.88.

At that moment, a user named Tolse posted in the chat, “Big news! Saudi Aramco just announced massive production cuts! Crude futures are about to soar!”

Upon seeing this, all retail and major investors, including some long and short main players, were stunned. They searched for the source and found the Saudi Aramco head had posted the news on social media just a minute ago.

Fueled by this news, the crude futures market went wild. Countless long orders flooded in like a blizzard, crushing all shorts and shooting the price straight up to 36.54.

Yan Fei stared dumbfounded at the monstrous spike, his heart pounding fiercely. Only reason restrained him: a major event was unfolding, and he mustn’t be greedy. He resolutely closed his long position.

His 685-lot long order closed instantly amid the raging market without halting the upward surge. Prices quickly climbed to 36.68, yet Yan Fei remained calm.

Sure enough, ten seconds after Yan Fei closed his position, trading halted—no more short or long orders could be executed. Observing this, Yan Fei murmured, “The ‘router cut’ rule is truly terrifying. Now, I wonder if my $4.48 million profit still counts.”

[end]